By all accounts the race for the 54th assembly district should be a close one. The race has been expensive and nasty, but I think ultimately the winner will be the candidate who has visited the most households. Each candidate says they have been to thousands of doors--tomorrow we will know who really has visited more.
In the above paragraph I am arguing that the hardest working candidate will win the race. But it might be fun to do a little Democrat and Republican wacko analysis too. There are some upstanding Democrats and Republicans who really believe in small-d democracy and encourage citizens to vote their conscience and interests. Then there are the wackos who see elections merely as establishment thuggery designed to limit choices and guarantee the continuation of what has become, in effect, a spoils system for well-connected special interests.
The wacko analysis of the 54th starts by looking at the results of the 2004 election:
*Underheim (R) 14,040 (47%)
*Hintz (D) 12,025 (40%)
*Palmeri (G) 2,653 (9%)
*Carpenter (I) 1,157 (4%)
According to the wacko analysis, all of Palmeri's votes go to Hintz. But that would give him only 49%, not a majority, so the swing voters become those who voted for Carpenter. Turnout probably won't be as large for this midterm election, but this is the wacko analysis so none of that matters. The wackos love to "target" voters; maybe they should spend today trying to find those Carpenter voters and give them one more reason to vote against the other candidate.
Wednesday will be a tough morning for Democrat and Republican wackos in the 54th--one of them will not be able to blame other candidates for their defeat.
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1 comment:
looking for liberals (and conservatives) who like to debate the other side....feel free to come by and say hi...tomorrow could be a good day to do that
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