The Katie Dobbs Debate Principle And Other Post-Debate Musings

I don't have anything particularly profound to say about President Biden's train wreck of a debate performance against the felonious former prez, but here's what I was thinking while suffering through it: 

*Biden Should Have Taken the Katie Hobbs Route: In May, Biden agreed to participate in two debates with Trump. My first thought at the time was, WHY? Given the President's well documented struggles with unscripted events, I feared there was a real chance that we might see the doting Biden on stage. Indeed and tragically, that is what happened. 

But even if Biden were twenty years younger and at the top of his debate game, I still would have advised against participating. His campaign should have followed what I will call the Katie Dobbs debate principle. In 2022, Democrat Katie Hobbs was running for governor of Arizona against Republican Kari Lake. Lake, a MAGA Republican whose allegiance to Donald Trump borders on pathological, spent much of the campaign espousing falsehoods about the 2020 election. Hobbs refused to debate Lake, saying in part: 

How do you debate someone who refuses to accept the truth, who doesn't live in fact? It doesn't do any service to the voters in terms of  . . . looking at the contrast between us in terms of how we're going to govern if all she's going to do is shout over me, interrupt me, and spew lies. 

Democrat Katie Hobbs refused to debate her MAGA Republican opponent Kari Lake in the race for Arizona governor in 2022, claiming that Lake was only interested in creating spectacle and spreading falsehoods. Hobbs won the election. Lake, an extreme election denier, still tells MAGA faithful that SHE is the rightful governor even though her claims of election fraud have been debunked repeatedly in and outside of legal proceedings. 

As a teacher of political rhetoric, and a strong believer in debate as the foundation of civil society, it's not easy for me to urge candidates to avoid participating. But when you have candidates like Kari Lake and Donald Trump, who will continue to lie even in the face of irrefutable evidence against them, the "debate" becomes a mockery of democratic norms; nothing but a "spectacle" that makes voters dumber, as Governor Hobbs correctly noted. 

President Biden would have lost little support by refusing to share a stage with a malignant narcissist bent on filling up 90 minutes with "alternative facts." Even if Biden had been more alert and rhetorically agile, he would have had to spend literally every minute of his speaking time correcting factual misstatements.

Biden also agreed to participate in a September debate. To withdraw at this point would generate the obvious criticism that Biden's campaign managers want to shield him from another embarrassing performance. The Biden campaign needs to weigh that criticism against allowing Mr. Trump another opportunity to share his alternative universe with millions. 

*What If Nikki Haley Had Been The Republican Nominee?  Just about every thinking person now realizes that, for very different reasons, Republican and Democratic primary voters have chosen to put two deeply flawed candidates on the November ballot. (The Republican selection of Trump has to do with the power of a personality cult, while the Democratic Party establishment simply would not allow a serious intra-party challenge to Biden.). 

Nikki Haley proved to be a formidable debater in the Republican primaries. All candidates have flaws, but Haley's baggage does not come close to what Mr. Trump is carrying. Had she been the Republican challenger in the debate against President Biden, she would probably be recruiting her future Cabinet right about now. 

But what if Republicans had done the sane thing and given former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley enough votes to guarantee her the nomination? If Haley had been on that debate stage against Biden, I'm certain that the wealthy donor class on the Democratic side would be much more vocal right now in demanding the Democrats select a new candidate at the August convention. Haley would have come out of that debate with enough confidence to start planning her presidential Cabinet appointments. 

Donald Trump is probably the ONLY Republican that President Biden can defeat at this point, and only because millions of voters will be making a "lesser evil" calculation as they cast their ballot. What a sad and pathetic state of affairs. 

*Shameful Moderating: The fact that Sean Hannity and Elon Musk praised the performance of CNN's Jake Tapper and Dana Bash as debate moderators should tell us something. Tapper and Bash refused to perform any on-the-spot fact checking, which obviously benefits the candidate most adept at lying. Hard to disagree with the Washington Post's Karen Attiah on this: 

"CNN's format of no fact checking, no pushback, no follow-ups was a mistake. The Biden campaign agreeing to this was a mistake. It demonstrates Trump's strength and power. He can bend the media and Biden to play by his rules." She called what CNN did "journalistic malpractice" and said further, "If this is how debates will go--just asking basic questions, no real-time fact checks, context or follow-ups by human journalists . . .. might as well let ChatGPT or AI do the 'job.'" 

*Democrats' Hostility to Third Party Participation Comes Back To Bite Them: Neither of the establishment parties want third party or independent candidates to participate in debates, and they collude with the corporate media to create absurd qualification requirements that are virtually impossible for even wealthy independent candidates to meet. To cite just one example: an independent or third party candidate has to be pulling at least 15 percent support in 4 qualifying national polls. If an independent candidate could participate in the debates, s/he might approach that level of support. The major parties and the media that enable them are fully aware of that, so they do what they can to prevent it. Shameful. 

What if Bobby Kennedy Jr., the independent candidate getting the most support from voters right now, had been on stage with Biden and Trump? If nothing else, it would have resulted in Biden talking less and thus give him more time to gather his thoughts (even though some of his worst moments at the debate were when he was not talking). Kennedy's wild conspiracy theories would have probably created a number of viral social media moments, which also would have helped Biden since the viral moments that DID come out of the debate are hurting him terribly. 

*Is this An Ashcroft v. Carnahan Election? While watching the debate I started thinking of the year 2000 Missouri US Senate race between incumbent Republican John Ashcroft and Democrat Mel Carnahan, who was governor of the state. Ashcroft had been Missouri's governor before Carnahan. Ashcroft had the power of incumbency on his side, but Carnahan had been a popular governor and Missouri was a much more purple state at the time. Pundits called the race a toss-up.  

Three weeks before the election, Mel Carnahan tragically died in a plane crash. So close to the election, Missouri law did not allow the Dems to select another candidate. So they left Mel Carnahan on the ballot, with an understanding that if he were to win, the new governor would appoint Carnahan's wife Jean to the seat until a special election in 2002. Jean Carnahan made one television ad in those last three weeks, essentially asking Missourians to vote for her late husband's aspirations even though he would not be the one to bring them to Washington. Mel Carnahan won the election, and Jean Carnahan went to Washington. She lost the 2002 special election to Republican Jim Talent. 

Governor Mel Carnahan of Missouri was the Democratic candidate for US Senate in 2000 against conservative Republican incumbent John Ashcroft. Carnahan tragically died in a plane crash three weeks before the election. He remained on the ballot, and won as the campaign urged voter to vote their aspirations. The Biden campaign today may have to make similar urgings. 

Obviously Joe Biden is not dead, but after the debate debacle the race is feeling a lot like Ashcroft v. Carnahan. John Ashcroft was not a popular US Senator in Missouri, just as Donald Trump is a deeply unpopular candidate. Mel Carnahan literally could not do the job if elected; after the presidential debate, millions of people are now convinced that President Biden cannot do it. Videos of him speaking energetically at a North Carolina rally the next day were not enough to convince otherwise. Even Biden stalwarts like New York Times columnist Paul Krugman are now urging Biden to step down.(Krugman says, "The best President of my adult life needs to withdraw."). Many others in the punditocracy agree with that sentiment. 

My guess is that Biden will not leave, for a variety of reasons including ego, the messiness of choosing a new candidate at this point, and the very real possibility that a fractured Democratic Party convention could do more to hand the presidency back to Trump than a frail Biden. 

So where does that leave us? First, I think the Democrat establishment needs to stop denying the obvious fact that the president is in decline. Second, the Democrats need to hope that Kamala Harris scores a knockout against whatever sycophantic toady Donald Trump selects to run as VP. Third, the Democrats need to frame the race as a  battle between two seriously compromised candidates, both of whom might not be able to finish their terms or be effective for a number of reasons. As a result, they should ask people to consider the aspirations of each candidate, and vote on that basis. I believe that more people share the aspirations of Biden/Harris than Trump/whoever.  

People worried about another Trump presidency should also pray. I know I'm doing much more of that these days. 

Finally, if the Dems do end up having to select a replacement nominee, I hope Governor Katie Hobbs is given serious consideration. She represents the key swing state of Arizona, has a record of accomplishment as governor even though the Republicans hold majorities in the state house and senate, and she connects well with traditional Democratic constituencies. Equally important, she wants to restore political debate to something worthy of a country that calls itself a representative democracy.